nickchaves.com

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Will LinkedIn outlive Facebook?

Monday, April 23, 2012

Looks like it's downfall-prediction time in the popularity lifecycle for Facebook.

Geoffrey James of Inc. Magazine published an editorial which argues that Facebook, unlike LinkedIn, is vulnerable to being ditched for "something 'cooler'":

LinkedIn is all about business and people's resumes. Because its scope is limited to fundamentally dull information, LinkedIn is simply not vulnerable to something "cooler."

Sure, somebody could launch a site similar to LinkedIn. (And I'm sure plenty of people have.) But why would the customer base bother to change? Nobody on LinkedIn cares about being cool. LinkedIn's beauty is that it's dull but functional–like email and the telephone.

Fair point. Being popular because you're cool does make you vulnerable to the next cool thing. But he doesn't make good arguments — or any at all, really — for his case that people have been using Facebook because it's cool.

Specifically, this argument falls flat for me:

Consumer-oriented social networking sites are like television networks: People will switch when there's something better on another channel.

Actually, consumer-oriented social networking sites are nothing like television networks. Exclusive content provides customers a reason to use more than one network. And, most importantly, there's no cost to switch to something better on another TV channel — in fact, it's common to switch back and forth.

Facebook, on the other hand, with years of posts, photos, and other social interactions (yes, many of them useless), as well as a large current audience, has a huge cost for a user that wants to "switch".

James does address that:

Frankly, I think it's just one online conversion program away from losing its customer base and becoming the next MySpace.

An "online conversion program" might provide a way to minimize the data loss, but Facebook has a much larger asset: market momentum.

ComScore analysis shows that 69% of North American internet users have Facebook accounts, according to a CNET article. People use Facebook because other people use Facebook — their friends, specifically. That's been one of the primary drivers of its virality, and it is now the reason for its ubiquity. In that sense, Facebook is more like email or the telephone than LinkedIn.

No online conversion program is going to move their friends over to the "next" Facebook.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Monday, April 9, 2012

Not so fast, 2012-deniers

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Don't believe the don't-believe-the-hype hype.

According to a meme being passed around Facebook, Pinterest and other sites in various forms, the historians who calculated the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar as December 21, 2012 forgot to account for leap days. Oops?

This is even being picked up by some news outlets. The International Business Times reported it with the attention-grabbing headline, "Why the end of the world will not happen on December 21, 2012":

There have been about 514 Leap Years since Caesar created it in 45BC. Without the extra day every 4 years, today would be July 28, 2013. Also, the Mayan calendar did not account for leap year...so technically the world should have ended 7 months ago.

Unfortunately for those who want to disprove the doomsayers a few months early, this is completely wrong.

The Mayan calendar makes use of five different periods of time, starting with a single day (k'in). The next period, winal, is 20 k'in. Then, tun is 18 winal (360 days), k'atun is 20 tun, and finally, a b'ak'tun is 20 tun, which makes it 144,000 days.

As the meme suggests, this calendar does not include leap days. In fact, it doesn't have anything to do with solar years at all. At 360 days, a tun is a rough approximation of a solar year, but it's already 5 days off.

The "end of the world", according to doomsayers (and, in Mayan tradition, the end of the current age, or what they considered to be the fourth world), was after the current long-count calendar reached 13.0.0.0.0, or in other words, completed the thirteenth b'ak'tun (the digits in the calendar start with zero).

That means that the thirteenth b'ak'tun ends on the 1,872,000th day since the beginning of the calendar. Leap years or not, exactly 1,872,000 days.

So how did we get December 21, 2012?

Since we know that the 13.0.0.0.0 is equivalent to 1,872,000 days, we need to know exactly what date the Mayan calendar starts on.

According to astrologer John Major Jenkins, an archeologist named J. Eric. S. Thompson determined that 0.0.0.0.0 corresponded to the Julian date 584283.

Plug this into a handy calculator and you can see that December 21, 2012 is, in fact, 1,872,000 days from Julian date 584283.

Screenshot from Julian Date calculator

Leap days included.

While it would be convenient and quite funny if some anonymous Facebook skeptic realized that historians and chronologists had "forgotten" to include leap days in the conversion from the Mayan calendar to our modern calendar, we can't rule out the end of the world quite yet.

Friday, February 3, 2012

What hold music sounds like to Google Voice

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Google Voice made a valiant effort to transcribe a voicemail I received that consisted entirely of hold music:

Hey. Hmm, hey. Thank you. Look forward to talking with you. Fine, hey right back with you. Hey, ciao they Yeah, hey Yeah, hey. Hello. Thank you. We're hoping we sincerely appreciate your patience. Please stay on the line and we'll be back in December.

Hey, yeah. Hello, hey bye. Hey, they. Bye. Hey, We appreciate your time and patience you stay on the line will be back hey hey. Bye, bye bye bye I did. Thanks for holding We appreciate your time and pasted. Please stay on the line and we'll be back in just a moment, bye hello. Bye bye But thank you for a likes.

Don't know why back. I was put Hello, Thank you for alone We look forward to talking with you soon. Please hold the line. I will be right back with you.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Spring

Wednesday, December 28, 2011